Forget the Headlines! Here’s What’s Actually Happening in SF Real Estate
Between the new tariffs, a jittery stock market, and headlines flipping between boom and bust, it’s fair to wonder: is San Francisco real estate about to get whiplash? Short answer? Maybe a stiff neck. But a full-on spiral? Not likely. Here’s why.
Sure, tariffs on things like steel, lumber, and appliances might bump up construction costs (again), which could slow some new builds or renovations. And yes, when the stock market throws a fit, buyers (especially at the high end and the entry level) tend to get cautious. But this is San Francisco. Our housing market doesn’t exactly track the national mood. It moves to its own rhythm — tech innovation, IPO whispers, and VC surges.
And that rhythm? Still thumping.
The single-family home market is on fire. Fully updated homes — even in some less-than-ideal spots (hello freeway adjacency) — are receiving multiple competitive offers and selling high. Even condos and TICs with “all the things” are moving quickly.
So what gives in the middle of all this economic noise? In my opinion, life is moving on. Rates aren’t going back to 2021 lows, and most people are realizing it’s time to stop waiting. Lifecycle events — growing families, new jobs, cross-city commitments — are pushing buyers off the sidelines. Many of my clients who have been in a holding pattern since 2023, are now they’re ready to make their move. Why? Because they see the opportunistic gap — the space between “tech layoffs” and the inevitable wave of “AI money” that’s already starting to roll into San Francisco.
Sure, there’s still uncertainty (there always is). But when you zoom out and look at the big picture — deep-rooted industries, global talent inflow, and good old-fashioned Bay Area scarcity — you see that San Francisco real estate has always been more of a long game than a panic button.
If you’re thinking about making a move — whether it’s now or six months from now — let’s talk. I’m always happy to walk you through what I’m seeing on the ground, what’s shifting, and where the real opportunities are. No pressure, just straight talk.
